Haystack October 2011

English language haystack
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Paul
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Re: Haystack October 2011

Post by Paul » 25 Oct 2011, 22:35

Blondie wrote:Paul,
You are saying that if I want clarification of your perspective I should read Armstrong?
I have read the work of both Armstrong and Lietaer, but disagree with both. Both believe in the omnipotence of central planning.
Not what I am saying, I just wanted to know to save myself lots of time.
I'm less interested in the "ideal" monetary system than I am in the next one. Nothing emanating from central planning will ever be ideal, that's the whole raison d'être of central planning - to tilt the playing field, because those doing such planning do not understand their own value and perceive "others" (in this case other states) as a threat. They are fearful of engaging without artificial advantage in case they are found wanting.

I can see your position from your diagram. The state is at the centre of your digram of "power"! The state!!! While you neglect to tell us the nature of this state, the fact that it is at the centre indicates that there can be no personal freedom, as the state is more important. One cannot be allowed to be responsible for oneself when the state is more important than you... what function would the state have in such a situation?
Paul wrote:It is like ecosystem, to be sustainable you need diversity. Government will have to adapt to modern times ...
Individuals being free to be responsible for themselves supplies just this diversity. Government can adapt by stepping aside.

I could ask a very long list of questions based upon your "clarifying comment" alone (how does one hotlink to individual comments on this forum?), but you have not yet answered any of the other questions from my last comment, just asked if I read Armstrong.

Armstrong is a very clever guy, to be sure. He was the first to successfully adapt to the floating fx environment post 1971 by modeling a "virtual currency" for himself which gave him a reference point inside the system, and a huge advantage over everyone else. Well done. His problem now however is that he remains in that perspective, thus the only way forward on such terms is further complications, and further state controls and diktats. Because of the past success of his perspective, Armstrong is hamstrung by it.
I have more interest in thoughts about ideal system.
This one is not going to last, we do agree on that one.
What/how next one will be we will see. In euro-freegold I do not believe. Architecture is just flawed.

I think there is much more to Armstrong's work than you give him credit for. He certainly is no central plan man. He is the one acknowledging no one can have control over worldeconomy. To state Armstrong wants further state control is far from the truth. The man is a free market fundamentalist. He brings a historical perspective and understanding of time and markets not having anything to do with this dollar system. His cyclic economic confidence model also works on roman empire. I did not check myself. I do believe though.

It answers to why I questioned if you've read the man. We draw totally different conclusions. And some of the answers to your questions about the one world currency are in his piece I referred to.

I would not call the complementary currencies I like and Lietaer suggests central planning. exactly opposite. they grow from bottom up instead from top down. they are organic. we could start one :lol:

You use own interpretation of my nice mental playing board to judge it by. but I did put state(any form) in the middle, correct, just as I did with unit of account(reserve currency). It is where the tensions/problems are. They should only be administrative. They are not. State is what we make of it (just like reserve currency), It is not a curse in my book anyway. I am not advocating statecontrol nor am I attacking personal freedom. Are you advocating anarchy here ? This board(in progress) is just a confidencegame, do you play your games alone ? 8-)

I am not here to defend or attack, I am here to share thought, perspective and comment,
I might answer questions I might not,
It is nice to watch this interesting time and market with people who share same interest,

we do not have to agree, time will prove all things
"Taxes are a barbaric relic of the past"


Adamus
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Re: Haystack October 2011

Post by Adamus » 25 Oct 2011, 23:44

Paul wrote:When gold will go exponential, then it will be time to sell, probably somewhere between 2016 and 2022.
first EUR will crack and then we deal with the sovereign debt crisis. gold is no proxy for value, value is relative, gold trades cyclical just like ANY other market.

...
Sell? What's the link between exponential and selling the metal? Freegold is not about exchanging for fiat.

Adamus
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Joined: 06 Oct 2011, 08:29

Re: Haystack October 2011

Post by Adamus » 25 Oct 2011, 23:53

Paul wrote:
Blondie wrote:Paul,
You are saying that if I want clarification of your perspective I should read Armstrong?
I have read the work of both Armstrong and Lietaer, but disagree with both. Both believe in the omnipotence of central planning.
Not what I am saying, I just wanted to know to save myself lots of time.
I'm less interested in the "ideal" monetary system than I am in the next one. Nothing emanating from central planning will ever be ideal, that's the whole raison d'être of central planning - to tilt the playing field, because those doing such planning do not understand their own value and perceive "others" (in this case other states) as a threat. They are fearful of engaging without artificial advantage in case they are found wanting.

I can see your position from your diagram. The state is at the centre of your digram of "power"! The state!!! While you neglect to tell us the nature of this state, the fact that it is at the centre indicates that there can be no personal freedom, as the state is more important. One cannot be allowed to be responsible for oneself when the state is more important than you... what function would the state have in such a situation?
Paul wrote:It is like ecosystem, to be sustainable you need diversity. Government will have to adapt to modern times ...
Individuals being free to be responsible for themselves supplies just this diversity. Government can adapt by stepping aside.

I could ask a very long list of questions based upon your "clarifying comment" alone (how does one hotlink to individual comments on this forum?), but you have not yet answered any of the other questions from my last comment, just asked if I read Armstrong.

Armstrong is a very clever guy, to be sure. He was the first to successfully adapt to the floating fx environment post 1971 by modeling a "virtual currency" for himself which gave him a reference point inside the system, and a huge advantage over everyone else. Well done. His problem now however is that he remains in that perspective, thus the only way forward on such terms is further complications, and further state controls and diktats. Because of the past success of his perspective, Armstrong is hamstrung by it.
I have more interest in thoughts about ideal system.
This one is not going to last, we do agree on that one.
What/how next one will be we will see. In euro-freegold I do not believe. Architecture is just flawed.

I think there is much more to Armstrong's work than you give him credit for. He certainly is no central plan man. He is the one acknowledging no one can have control over worldeconomy. To state Armstrong wants further state control is far from the truth. The man is a free market fundamentalist. He brings a historical perspective and understanding of time and markets not having anything to do with this dollar system. His cyclic economic confidence model also works on roman empire. I did not check myself. I do believe though.

It answers to why I questioned if you've read the man. We draw totally different conclusions. And some of the answers to your questions about the one world currency are in his piece I referred to.

I would not call the complementary currencies I like and Lietaer suggests central planning. exactly opposite. they grow from bottom up instead from top down. they are organic. we could start one :lol:

You use own interpretation of my nice mental playing board to judge it by. but I did put state(any form) in the middle, correct, just as I did with unit of account(reserve currency). It is where the tensions/problems are. They should only be administrative. They are not. State is what we make of it (just like reserve currency), It is not a curse in my book anyway. I am not advocating statecontrol nor am I attacking personal freedom. Are you advocating anarchy here ? This board(in progress) is just a confidencegame, do you play your games alone ? 8-)

I am not here to defend or attack, I am here to share thought, perspective and comment,
I might answer questions I might not,
It is nice to watch this interesting time and market with people who share same interest,

we do not have to agree, time will prove all things
What about FI's anarchy at the moment :-)

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Rasta
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The end of mark to myth?

Post by Rasta » 26 Oct 2011, 20:47

Zerohedge: Full Remarks By Unelected European Council President Herman Von Rompuy

"Agreement has been reached that banks should be required, by 30 June 2012, to have 9 % of the highest quality capital. This figure should take into account a marking down for sovereign bond holdings against current market prices (as of 30 September 2011)."
Eventually there will be an awakening, a balancing of the scales and a bill to be paid, and for that I hold gold - Jim Sinclair

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Paul
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Re: Haystack October 2011

Post by Paul » 27 Oct 2011, 00:14

Adamus wrote:What about FI's anarchy at the moment :-)
we don't have anarchy
yet
debatable if it could be corporate to begin with

we are moving to corporate fascism nowadays me thinks
"Taxes are a barbaric relic of the past"

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Paul
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Re: Haystack October 2011

Post by Paul » 27 Oct 2011, 00:30

Adamus wrote:
Paul wrote:When gold will go exponential, then it will be time to sell, probably somewhere between 2016 and 2022.
first EUR will crack and then we deal with the sovereign debt crisis. gold is no proxy for value, value is relative, gold trades cyclical just like ANY other market.

...
Sell? What's the link between exponential and selling the metal? Freegold is not about exchanging for fiat.
when gold will go exponential it means it is reaching top of market, and that will be signal it is time to leave.
I understand freegold. It is really nice, but I do not believe in it. My believe is in the floating free markets where the only constant is time.
There will come a time to put confidence in something else and I have no fear to do so. Market will give clues where to go ...
"Taxes are a barbaric relic of the past"

Adamus
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Joined: 06 Oct 2011, 08:29

Re: Haystack October 2011

Post by Adamus » 27 Oct 2011, 09:11

Paul wrote:
Adamus wrote:What about FI's anarchy at the moment :-)
we don't have anarchy
yet
debatable if it could be corporate to begin with

we are moving to corporate fascism nowadays me thinks
That's the way TPTB do their job to take the wealth? Probably.

"corporate fascism": has it ever been away? I have my doubts.

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Rasta
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Re: Haystack October 2011

Post by Rasta » 27 Oct 2011, 21:41

traderdannorcini.blogspot.com: The US Dollar gets Annihilated

"Whack a Mole" does not even come close to what the Forex crowd did to the US Dollar today. Earler in the week it fell below the 50 day moving average but seemed to be trying to regain its footing just above the 76 level.

Today it was blasted to kingdom come breaking through multiple support levels in the process and crashing through the critical 100 day moving average as if it did not even exist.

Based on the current chart picture, there seems to be little in the way of downside support until it reaches the former consolidation zone. Failure to stop there and it will make a new low.

Image
Eventually there will be an awakening, a balancing of the scales and a bill to be paid, and for that I hold gold - Jim Sinclair

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Indiana Jones
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Are Foreign Central Banks Slowing dumping Treasuries ?

Post by Indiana Jones » 28 Oct 2011, 21:38

Dan Norcini : Thursday, October 27, 2011

Each week the Federal Reserve provides an updated number for its Custodial Accounts. A very crude way of understanding these is to consider them as a type of savings account for Foreign Central Banks that are held at the New York Branch of the Federal Reserve.

When the US buys goods from a foreign country and pays for those goods with US Dollars, oftentimes it ends up running a trade deficit with that particular nation. The result is that the foreign country ends up with a large amount of Dollars that it needs to "sterilize" in order to prevent an inflationary outbreak. What generally happens with a good portion of these surplus Dollars is that the country in question will purchase US Treasury obligations. That way it gains interest on its trade surplus of US Dollars which constitute part of its overall reserves.

For the sake of simplicity and convenience, the Treasuries are not actually shipped over to that country but are instead held "in custody" for that nation with the New York Branch of the Federal Reserve. Selling the Treasuries in question becomes very easy for the foreign Central Bank as it simply phones or wires in its instructions and the deal is done.

Note the nearly exponential growth in the number of Treasuries held in these custodial accounts. As you can clearly see, beginning with the credit meltdown here in the US in the summer of 2008, the line has gone parabolic. This is a picture of the amount of indebtedness generated by the US as it took the path of enormous deficit spending to keep the liquidity flowing into the markets.

What strikes me about this chart is that for the last 3 years, the growth in the size of these custodial accounts has been steadily upward with only a few brief periods during which it was interrupted. Even at that, the line on the chart really never dipped all that much moving more or less sideways for a brief interval before resuming its upward path.

However something noteworthy now appears to have been underway since September of this year. The amount of Treasuries held in custody for these foreign Central Banks now appears to be slowly, but steadily declining. It reached a peak of $2.752 trillion the first week of September this year and has now declined to $2.67 trillion as of this week. That is a drop of $82.5 billion.

I do not know the exact composition of these custodial accounts in terms of the duration of the bulk of these Treasuries but I am fairly confident that there is a pretty good mix of both shorter dated and longer dated securities. The Federal Reserve's Operation Twist is designed to purchase $400 billion of longer dated Treasuries as it sells the same amount of shorter dated Treasuries.

I wonder if we are seeing foreign Central Banks using this Operation Twist to unload some of their longer dated Treasuries into the hands of the Fed. The Fed is basically buying, no questions asked. If you plan on getting rid of some of them, why not take advantage of the program?

It might be a bit too early to say with certainty, but if this is the beginning of a trend, it will signify that we are headed for a period of rising interest rates as it is doubtful that the Fed alone could soak up the Treasuries that foreign Central Banks might choose to unload if they begin getting nervous about the prospects of the US Dollar in the months and years ahead.

Stay tuned.
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Rasta
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Re: Haystack October 2011

Post by Rasta » 29 Oct 2011, 21:46

Reuters: Greeks seek to escape debt crisis abroad

It certainly looks like the migration in the US between states. Migration to escape to cheaper tax-friendly states.
Eventually there will be an awakening, a balancing of the scales and a bill to be paid, and for that I hold gold - Jim Sinclair

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