Jim Sinclair

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Indiana Jones
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Re: Jim Sinclair

Post by Indiana Jones »

May 12, 2012, at 6:07 pm
by Jim Sinclair

My Dear Extended Family,

This is definitely the weekend of discontent. The amount of confusion in the community may well be at a spiritual level. It is as if readers have forgotten the message of more than ten years. The problem is in semantics, the meaning of words. So again for the multi thousandth time, let’s review as simply stated as possible.

Definitions:

Inflation is the increase of money supply.

Deflation is the failure of debt, both public and private.

QE is the non-economic purchasing of debt by a central bank and the funding of the same by other central banks rendering chart near meaningless. Non economic because the normal motivation for the purchase, appreciation or short covering, it not the motivating factor.

Premise:

Because of the size and condition of Western world debt deflation or the failure of debt, both private and public, cannot be permitted without replacing the lost funds back into the financial system or funding the gains on the defunct OTC derivatives held within the financial system.

Conclusion:

Increasingly difficult business conditions cannot be entertained because the problem is based on a balance sheet weakness situation now hidden from view by the decision of the FASB, the gatekeepers of accounting. The FASB allows financial institutions to value their complex OTC derivatives at what they decide, not market to true value, what something is worth to another at balance sheet closing time. Failure to produce an ebullient economic recovery demands the ultimate stimulus, QE, which is debt monetization on steroids, to prevent a collapse of the financial sector.

Therefore looking back to 2010 when the illustration of three stages of the skier was offered to you reflects the above prediction of how the economy and central bank’s activity will unfold. There is absolutely no change in the series of events that will pan out as predicted.

Deflation as outlined above is the key element in the analysis. Default on sovereign debt and losses such as the 2 billion estimated blown by Morgan is the form of deflation in the analysis.

The following will occur exactly as outlined in 2010.

Image

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For more weekend clarification:

A simple rebut of the one euro to one dollar crowd.

If a major corporation with subsidiaries equal in number to the member countries of the European Union, some profitable others losers, was to eliminate one to three of the major losers, would the corporation be worth more or less? The answer is fundamentally the same or more at the time of action.

Therefore if the euro was to shake off two of its weakest members would it be worth more or less? The answer fundamentally is the same or more.

This insults the one euro to one dollar school popular with MSM and MOPE, but it might be wise for that school to consider.
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Indiana Jones
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Re: Jim Sinclair

Post by Indiana Jones »

Time For Blasphemy–A Review

May 25, 2012, at 11:41 am
by Jim Sinclair


Dear Extended Family,

Time for blasphemy. I do not propose these as right, just as possible.

Could the world consensus on a significantly lower euro be totally wrong?

1. Assume the Greek situation is resolved however it happens to be. Assume the euro does a great full body shake, throwing off some of its weakest members.

At that point what happens?

Be careful about being bearish. That side is getting to be an unwieldy crowd. You might be dead wrong. It could start a move of the euro from $1.40 to $1.60 versus the dollar.

2. How about the election of Hollande in France? This is a "game changer" because it is the beginning of a euro political and economic union of the Left? The major problem with the euro is it is not a political union and each member has their own economic agenda and cannot stand all the other members. Remember the Left is dizzy, but on the Right is our banksters who are downright mean.

What would the value of the euro be with number one done, and two number expected? I think $1.40 to $1.60.

You short of euro guys are a violent bunch. I heard enough of your emails cursing at me because you refuse to consider the above as even a possibility. Are you not making a political trade rather than an economic trade?

The Super Bears on the euro I know are European by background; many are expats.

Respectfully,
Jim

http://www.jsmineset.com/
Everything that needs to be said has already been said.
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Indiana Jones
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Re: Jim Sinclair

Post by Indiana Jones »

Majority Opinion Is Not Always Correct
May 25, 2012, at 12:43 pm
by Jim Sinclair


My Dear Friends,

One thing I am sure of is that the majority opinion on the destiny of the euro is wrong. The bear position is so crowded it may as well be one sided.

Sure, that type of trading will continue to put pressure on but it all will go splat after the fact. Yes that type of position reflects its mirror image on the dollar and could make the present bullish near term price objective real, but for a moment only.

Gold seems to recognize that we are witnessing the death throes of all fiat currencies inherent in this transition of the euro.

The unexpected is in fact happening. Sovereign insolvency resulting in debt repudiation was thought to be a part of history in Zimbabwe only. It is not.

It is a clear and present danger to the largest debtor nation on the planet, the US dollar. The problems with the dollar will make Greece look like child’s play.

Once the euro circus, which seems traditional, comes to its dead end a change will occur. At or slightly ahead of that time the short of the euro is going to get crushed. The firm dollar is no longer a factor in the gold price as the death of fiat currency overcomes the temporary mirror image of the euro the dollar is.

I feel from the time of the event we will see a much higher euro and weaker dollar that may well prevail for years.

Stay the course. We are totally correct.

Enjoy your weekend.

Regards,
Jim
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Rasta
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Re: Jim Sinclair

Post by Rasta »

JsMineset: In The News Today

(Commenting on article "Mining Maven Says Share Slump To Spur Merger Boom")

My Dear Extended Family,

This is true of any company out there with real value unrealized by the market in a safe political location outside of North America

Please give me a call or email me if you are one of them. I am a ready buyer.

I wouldn't underestimate this "little company" in Tanzania. Has the key strategic deals and partners in place, as well as the grounds with proven and still fast amounts of unexplored grounds.
Eventually there will be an awakening, a balancing of the scales and a bill to be paid, and for that I hold gold - Jim Sinclair
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Rasta
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Re: Jim Sinclair

Post by Rasta »

Jim's mailbox

Jim,

Bravo and thanks for the amazing insights, and confidence boosts. QE to infinity is a perfect way to convey how derivatives force Central Banks to protect their banking systems (the real mandate), but "infinity" isn’t exactly correct, because we’ll have to stop somewhere short of that.

I guess my question is, then what?

QE to "almost infinity" must be a kind of hyperinflation, which I assume will eventually cause a global currency reset. I realize this is a long way off, and mostly unpredictable, but will they have enough time to plan a quasi-orderly transition, or will it just be total chaos?

CIGA Tuttle

Dear CIGA Tuttle,

A currency event axiomatic to QE to infinity is the limiting factor. All such previous periods in history slammed debt against the wall of currency viability then replaced the fiat currency with a commodity currency which paved the road to recovery. There is more that needs to be done, but I will leave that to a future commentary. Just let me hint at it by saying markets must become legitimate again, the uptick rule needs to be reinstated, OTC derivatives must be declared illegal, there needs to be major consequences for financial fraud, possibly a capital crime at certain levels and so on.

Regards,
Jim
Eventually there will be an awakening, a balancing of the scales and a bill to be paid, and for that I hold gold - Jim Sinclair
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Rasta
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Re: Jim Sinclair

Post by Rasta »

Some comments by Jim to Marty. Apparently this runs deep.

JsMineset: The Day Of The Deflationists

My Dear Extended Family,

Never before in the entire period of 1968 to 1980, or 2001 to present, have I received so many copies of classical deflationist scenarios in one day. It would seem as if the God of Deflation overflew the gold guys and dropped their leaflets.

Classical deflation does not have a snowball’s chance in hell of occurring now for any length of time. To assume that you have to hold the belief that Bernanke is a mole in the present administration, placed their covertly to bury the present administration so deep that there will never be a democrat in office after 2013 anywhere.

If you believe there is a political appetite for the collapse of the Western financial system, they had a perfect chance in 2008 and did not accept that great opportunity to purge the system of Banksters for political reasons.

The problems of 2008 are here now and greater. Derivatives still challenge the entire system at a greater level. A major under the covers audit is being done right now of some major banks for serious OTC derivative problems. Market miscreant activity allowed the break to near nothing for many financial institutions. The activity specifically is the absence of the uptick rule, which is still missing. The regulators are controlled by Washington which in turn is owned by the hedge fund and bankster’s lobby.

Nothing whatsoever has changed except the degree of difficulty which has risen to a level never existing in market history.

The rescue will come in the form of QE to infinity for the entire western world’s financial system.

The market historians making fun of the gold community may not like the fact that it was the huge communication to his prison authorities and the system that actually got him the opportunity for freedom. Whatever the mental level reason for his hate of “Gold Bugs,” he is wrong.

Gold is going to and through $2111 on its way towards Alf’s levels.

The euro and the dollar, in that order, will be bailed out. QE will rise to infinity the longer Bernanke plays chicken with the present administration for perseverance of the private bank, the Fed, and its power.

Please stop sending me copies of the latest tome from our respected market historian. The history he is going to make now is his largest market error in his career, scaring the life out of investment protection insurance non trading gold holders, so much so that when they leave they will never return to the gold market.

I have written about Currency Induced Cost Push Inflation hundreds of times. They are all in the compendium. Our beloved historian does not understand this concept, but will be defrocked by it.

This popular writer is determined to walk the halls of ivy again, doing anything necessary to make that happen. Part of that is not having a history of being rescued by the “Gold Bugs,” which he was. I knew him in the 70s when he looked down at me as not in his high circles.

Nothing has changed.

Respectfully,
Jim
Eventually there will be an awakening, a balancing of the scales and a bill to be paid, and for that I hold gold - Jim Sinclair
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Indiana Jones
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Re: Jim Sinclair

Post by Indiana Jones »

Hmmmm Jim vs Martin right now ..... strange times we're going through ... :?
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Re: Jim Sinclair

Post by Adamus »

The market historians making fun of the gold community may not like the fact that it was the huge communication to his prison authorities and the system that actually got him the opportunity for freedom. Whatever the mental level reason for his hate of “Gold Bugs,” he is wrong.
De vinger op de zere plek :!:

Nog een keer gelezen: hij schrijft Armstrong af. Er gaat geen discussie komen, niet vanuit Sinclair in ieder geval.
Last edited by Adamus on 26 Jun 2012, 15:14, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Jim Sinclair

Post by Spruitje »

Schrijft Jim dan niet langer vanuit het land van de "Vrijheid", de States? Anders zou hij ook nog de "doos" kunnen in geraken. :roll:

edit: Doesn't Jim writes no longer from the land of "Freedom (Liberty)", The States? Otherwise, they could throw him in jail also... (the reply form Adamus: Liberty is only a statue)
Last edited by Spruitje on 26 Jun 2012, 18:03, edited 2 times in total.
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Rasta
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Re: Jim Sinclair

Post by Rasta »

I suppose Jim has been careful enough not to step on any (officials) toes.
Eventually there will be an awakening, a balancing of the scales and a bill to be paid, and for that I hold gold - Jim Sinclair
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