Technische Analyse, daytrading en speculatie draad 2013

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Indiana Jones
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Technische Analyse, daytrading en speculatie draad 2013

Post by Indiana Jones »

Hoera, het nieuwe crimex-jaar is weer begonnen ..... :?
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Re: Technische Analyse, daytrading en speculatie draad 2013

Post by Indiana Jones »

Maar er is nog hoop ...... :)

======================

There is a high probability that the correction in the gold price that started in early October at $1797 has been completed.

All the minor waves are in place and the A and C wave portions are approximately equal at -$120 each. The chart below depicts the action on Comex via the 2 month forward chart:

Image

The analysis of wave C is as follows:

a. 1758 to 1687 -71

b. 1687 to 1727 +40

c. 1727 to 1636 -91

C. 1758 to 1636 -122

Wave a. at -$71 is 78% of wave c. at $91, an Elliott relationship.

Even the smaller c wave portion of wave C has 5 small waves which have a neat Elliott configuration, as follows:

Analysis of wave c of C:

i. 1727 to 1681 -46

ii. 1681 to 1706 +25

iii. 1706 to 1664 -42

iv. 1664 to 1680 +26

v. 1680 to 1636 -44

Wave c. 1727 to 1636 -91

Note that the corrective waves ii and iv are +25 and +26, confirming that they are part of the same wave. The downward waves are within $2 of -$44 each. All pretty neat.

The following chart of the PM gold fixings was prepared a couple of weeks ago to indicate the possible target low of $1642 for the end of the correction:

Image

Note that $1642 was also the 61.8% retracement level as well as the point where waves A and C would have been equal. That target of $1642 was not achieved, the lowest PM fix being $1650 on Dec 20, 2012. There was a slightly lower morning fix the next day, but there is enough evidence when combined with the Comex gold chart to conclude that the correction from $1797 has been completed.

Obviously a decline to below $1636 would render this analysis valueless and we would have to reconsider the situation. The PM fix on Jan 2, 2013 was $1693, so there is already some upward movement on the scale that one should now expect.

Once $1800 is taken out on the upside, the gold chart will look tremendous. A beautiful “cup and handle” base would then provide strong support for a vigorous upward climb in the precious metal. At this stage there is no reason to abandon the rough target of $4500 for this coming upward wave. Once we have the next upleg above $1800 in place, it will be possible to start refining this target.

It seems that gold is well set up for a spectacular year in 2013.

Alf Field

3 January 2013

Comments: ajfield@attglobal.net

Disclosure and Disclaimer Statement:
The author has personal investments in gold and silver bullion, as well as in gold, silver, uranium and base metal mining shares. The author’s objective in writing this article is to interest potential investors in this subject to the point where they are encouraged to conduct their own further diligent research. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any stock, currency or commodity. Investors are recommended to obtain the advice of a qualified investment advisor before entering into any transactions. The author has neither been paid nor received any other inducement to write this article.
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doubleyou
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Re: Technische Analyse, daytrading en speculatie draad 2013

Post by doubleyou »

Indy,
Keep up the good work !
Crimex or not...
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Indiana Jones
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Re: Technische Analyse, daytrading en speculatie draad 2013

Post by Indiana Jones »

Alf Field

That target of $1642 was not achieved, the lowest PM fix being $1650 on Dec 20, 2012.

=========================

This target is or will be achieved today :!:
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doubleyou
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Re: Technische Analyse, daytrading en speculatie draad 2013

Post by doubleyou »

.
ik ken en volg eigenlijk niet echt TA, en kan er dus moilijk over oordelen, maar hierbij een link ivm TA goud

http://www.themarkettrendforecast.com/f ... h-in-gold/
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Re: Technische Analyse, daytrading en speculatie draad 2013

Post by Indiana Jones »

Indiana Jones wrote:Alf Field

That target of $1642 was not achieved, the lowest PM fix being $1650 on Dec 20, 2012.

=========================

This target is or will be achieved today :!:
Ziet er wel naar uit dat de low gisteren gezet is, lager dus dan Alf Field/s predictie, maar zoals ik gisterochtend al vermoedde, is die net na de middag wél gezet: $ 1.625,9

Ik volg slechts enkele T.A. posters en laat de rest links liggen. Vertrouw op mijn eigengemaakte T.A.'s (voor wat die waard zijn .. ;) )

Als ik op één en dezelfde dag van iedere T.A. analist, het T.A./tje zou printen .... ben ik vele duizenden euro's printinkt kwijt en kan dan het hele gebouw van Goldman Sachs dichtplakken.

Dat doen we dus maar niet .... :lol:
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doubleyou
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Re: Technische Analyse, daytrading en speculatie draad 2013

Post by doubleyou »

.
Indiana Jones, ik geef je toch nog even de mening van Franklin Sanders mee, zoals hij het op dit moment ziet.
En daarna laat ik de TA over aan de kenners en degenen die zich daar in (kunnen) verdiepen.
Het is niet echt aan mij besteed, al begrijp ik natuurlijk dat je er zeker je voordeel mee kan doen voor het bepalen van de (meer) ideale instap-en uitstapmogelijkheden.
Good luck !
========================

The silver and GOLD PRICE suffered again today. Gold lost 25.60 (1.5%) to $1,648.10 while silver lost 77.5 cents (2.5%) to 2989.6.

Then a funny thing happened after the Comex closes: gold shot up nearly $10 and silver nearly 30 cents.

Bollinger bands are a technical indicator too complicated to explain (a 20 day running band at +/1 2 standard deviations from the mean) but fairly reliable. Both silver and gold have now twice punched the bottom band. Points to higher prices immediately

The GOLD PRICE low today was $1,625.25. New low for the move, but it closed nearer the top of today's range ($1,658.43) than the bottom. All today's loss came before New York opened, so strange as it sounds, today in New York gold steadily climbed.

London p.m. fixes have now double bottomed. 21 December 2012 fix was $1,651.50 (a.m. fix that day was $1,648.25) while today's p.m. fix was $1,648. That doesn't answer any question beyond quibble, but points in the right direction.

Downtrend line from recent lows stands about $1,620 today, and from the Sept 2011 high at about $1,610. Final kiss good-bye?

The SILVER PRICE made a new low today at 2920c, just about the downtrend line defining recent lows. A bit further draw, about 2875c, lies the downtrend from the April 2011 high. Again, this appears a likely place to turn around.

I throw my hands up in the air and wait for the market to speak. 'Tis long past time silver and gold should have turned around, but they work on their schedule, not mine. One comforting encouragement is to hear long time gold advocates growing chilly about the bull market. That generally is a sign a significant bottom has been reached.

A bull market climbs a wall of worry -- the bull wants to shake off as many riders as possible. Neither in time nor price has this metals bull market fulfilled reasonable targets, so the best must lie in front of us.

I keep accumulating on the way down. If it falls more, I'll buy more. I remain persuaded that 2013 will take silver and gold up wildly.

One week can certainly turn things around. For stocks and the dollar, a turnaround upwards, for metals (other than platinum) downward. Is that all there is? Is it the end of the silver and gold bull market? Have stocks begun a new bull market?

Yes, and if frogs had wings they wouldn't bump their little rears when they jump. Just be patient.

Here's the biggest story of the week, although you may not see it mentioned many places. The YIELD on the US 10 year treasury note broke out to the Upside. It gapped up to the downtrend line on Monday, then smartly advanced the rest of this week.

So what does this whisper? Since the yield (interest paid over the life of the bond) is the INVERSE of the bond's price, this implies lower bond prices. It's also not good news for Ben the Beneficent, because the Zero Interest Rate Policy has been the keystone of his rickety recovery arch. The Fed does NOT control interest rates, any more than a flea riding an elephant controls the elephant. Fed controls only the Fed Funds rate, and if the market decides it does not trust the dollar, they will shuck bonds like they were blankets from a leper colony (bonds are only a promise to pay dollars tomorrow, when the dollars will be worth less).

Ben's Zero Interest Rate Policy has also been wreaking havoc in the economy, because pension funds and insurance companies must operate on virtually no interest income when for long years they have assumed 4% - 6%. And of course, Ben's dumb policy has created a bubble in US treasury bonds because his ever lowering interest rates guaranteed the bonds' price would rise.

Too early to say yet exactly what this 10 year yield breakout means, but at the least it means lower bond prices for a while, and headaches for the NGM at the Fed. First big resistance to further rise in the yield come at 24 (2.4%).

A bursting bond bubble might cover everybody in goo.

US dollar index surged yesterday and appeared to break through its downtrend line, but was it real, or only a feint for suckers? Dollar dropped back 7.7 basis points today to 80.491. Dollar cannot maintain upward momentum if it closes below 80, but for now it's headed up.

Euro gained a little today, up 0.21% to $1.3075, but this repairs on damage. Euro has gapped down through its 20 day moving average (1.3128) and is hovering above its clustered 62 DMA ($1.2985) and 50 DMA ($1.2984) Uptrend appears broken beyond repair, but who ever knows with currencies?

Defying even pessimism, the Yen made a new low for the move today, down a whopping 0.98% to 113.45 cents/Y100, and at its lowest level since June 2010. Must be somewhere near a bottom -- monstrously oversold.

Stocks jubilated today. Dow rose 43.85 (0.33%) to 13,435.21, still comfortably above that ol' 13,300 resistance/support. However, they're blocked right now by a long standing internal resistance line. S&P500 rose 0.49% (7.1) to close at 1,466.47.

As they did from June 2012 through September 2012, stocks are forming another Rising Wedge. This pattern is a trickster. It points upward, and will fool you with its apparent strength and enthusiasm, but 'tis destined to respond to gravity, not levitation. Will break down, and hard.

But stocks may rise to a new high, even above 13,660. Right now they are running on hope, not evidence. Regardless how long this rally lasts, eventually economic gravity will take them down. US economy has not recovered, and can't until it purges out all the bad investment from the last boom. Banks haven't cleaned up their balance sheets, real estate remains oversupplied, and prices haven't retreated enough to form a bottom. That will take another 15 years or so.

Sooner or later, stocks will bend their back under those burdens.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
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Re: Technische Analyse, daytrading en speculatie draad 2013

Post by Indiana Jones »

Image
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Re: Technische Analyse, daytrading en speculatie draad 2013

Post by Indiana Jones »

30MMA steun en 40MMA crash_steun
zo ongeveerbijnahelemaalprecies ...... ;)
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Re: Technische Analyse, daytrading en speculatie draad 2013

Post by Duvellover »

indy voorziet hogere pog en comex reageert ;)

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