Hooimijt november 2013

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Paul
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Re: Hooimijt november 2013

Post by Paul »

Zo zit dat indy. niets aan toe te voegen.

Daarom dit dan maar. Kijktip. Als je anderhalf uur over hebt dan ZEKER kijken. Eigentijds sprookje.

"Taxes are a barbaric relic of the past"
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Indiana Jones
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Re: Hooimijt november 2013

Post by Indiana Jones »

@Ben2

T'is maar net wat je wilt geloven en zoals je weet is geloof, net zoals hoop geen feit totdat het bewezen is.
Na eindeloos veel leeswerk omtrent alle geloofsbrieven van goud-guru's, kom ik tot de conclusie dat ik me qua investering beter aan de feiten hou, omdat ik niet met de brokken wil zitten. De laatste zin in dit Armstrong artikeltje zegt dus ALLES dat je moet weten over goud .... ;)

===================================

Paper v Physical

Posted on November 27, 2013 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION:
Hi Mr. Armstrong,
Almost daily one reads from the gold media about the discrepancy between paper and physical gold. The gold bugs make their case by saying, that despite the weak price of paper gold, the demand for physical gold has never been better. To me it is just a bunch of hooey. If I have a Krugerrand in my pocket it is worth whatever the paper price is that day. So my question becomes: Has there ever been a period in history where the difference between the paper price of gold and the physical price of gold has resulted in a meaningful, practical difference?
Thanks as always,
MB

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ANSWER:
This theory about paper v physical is just nonsense. The organized “paper” futures market makes gold viable and liquid. If there was no such market, it would be like diamonds and prices will vary based upon local demand. Futures contracts have existed since Babylonian times. Such markets make gold salable and thus a DEEPER market. This is just an excuse as always so they can pretend not to be wrong. Scream about paper all you want. But when it is time to buy or sell, that is the price that will govern. The fact that physical demand in Asia is strong is irrelevant, why ?

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A bull market REQUIRES any instrument to rise in terms of ALL currencies – not just one. During the 1980s, they were touting new highs after the 1985 low and gold would then surely reach $1,000. We published these charts showing that the rally was only in dollars and thus the foreign investors were not buying. So just because China is buying now means nothing when they are not buying in Europe, USA, and India is trying to shut gold down..
A BULL MARKET requires whatever the instrument MUST be rising in ALL CURRENCIES, otherwise it is purely a local Currency Inflation rather than Demand Inflation.
Everything that needs to be said has already been said.
But since no one was listening, everything must be said again.
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Spruitje
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Re: Hooimijt november 2013

Post by Spruitje »

En zoals eerder al gesteld: Sta niet te roepen dat de goudhandel gemanipuleerd wordt.
Alles wordt gemanipuleerd: Libor, Euribor, Gold Fix, oliemarkt, ...

Onlangs stond ik nog bij een zaakvoerder die zijn bedrijf volledig had gemoderniseerd waardoor z'n productie beduidend verhoogd werd en de kostprijs drastisch verlaagd werd. Enkel stond hij nu weer voor 'n periode waarbij een massa van z'n machinepark diende te worden afgeschreven.
De concurrentie had al gepolst of ze konden "samenwerken" als ze op sommige drukke momenten de pieken niet konden opvangen gezien hun capaciteit nu verhoogd was. Met tevens de vraag of ze nu toch de markt niet gingen ondergraven door aan lagere prijzen te leveren, wat voor hen de doodsteek zou beteken.

Zoals gezegd: prijsafspraken overal tot bij de garnalen toe.
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Indiana Jones
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The $2.3 Trillion Nobody Mentions about Quantitative Easing

Post by Indiana Jones »

Over de verblijfstatus van die 2,3 trillion USdollar heerst veel verwarring, al helemaal in de goudwereld omdat men daar denkt dat deze 2.3 trillion forse/hyper inflatie zal veroorzaken, waardoor de goudprijs fors zou stijgen.
Niets is minder waar, die 2.3 trillion USdollar is simpelweg opgepot door de banken. Ze lenen het niet uit in de economie, maar gebruiken dit geld deels als oppotmiddel om de balans te versterken en deels om in aantrekkelijke marktsegmenten te speculeren. Er wordt geen dollar uitgeleend, tenzij de geldlener bereid is hoge rentepercentages aan de banken te betalen EN zijn familie, schoonfamilie en alles wat ze in eigendom hebben ... in onderpand te geven.

Maar goed, de politiek kan niet zonder commerciële banken (primary dealers), want het zijn deze banken (en NIET de Fed) die de overheidschulden in de markt moeten zetten. De too-big-to-fall/fail weten dat, zitten er tot aan hun ellebogen in bij de politiek, en maken grof misbruik van deze machtspositie.
De banken kunnen pas tot de orde geroepen worden als de politiek beseft dat ze veel te veel geld lenen en men de moed heeft hervormingen door te voeren, die ongetwijfeld groot verlies aan stemmen c.q. zetels tot gevolg zal hebben. Ik moet nog zien dat ze het lef hebben om dit te doen, want tot op heden is 'de partij' belangrijker dan het volk ..... dus vooralsnog kunnen de banken hun gang blijven gaan.

Voor goldbugs is dit artikel een must-read :!:
==================================

The $2.3 Trillion Nobody Mentions about Quantitative Easing
Posted on November 27, 2013 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: We didn’t see Quantitative Easing stimulate the economy? Was it all the money pouring out the cracks to overseas?

Thanks

GH

ANSWER: You have to look deeper than the headlines. Yes, it sounds like a lot of money $85 billion a month should have been inflationary in a closed system. But pick up the rug and you will see the real dirt. The previous Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee minutes from October 29 had a gem buried in there that I have suggest should be carried out with direct regulation over banks. Buried deep in those minutes was the mention of a possible step to reduce the interest paid to banks on the excess reserves that they hold at the Fed.

Banks are obligated to hold what are called “required reserves” at the Fed that amounts to about 10% of deposits. Currently, the Fed holds about $77 billion in required reserves for which they pay the banks 0.25 percent interest. However, the banks can also choose to hold what’s called “excess reserves” at the Fed. This is where things get interesting. It was under Quantitative Easing, when the Fed bought bonds from banks and in return they gave them a reserve credit on the Fed’s balance sheet. This became the “excess reserves”, which have grown to $2.3 trillion. These “excess reserves” earn interest of 0.25 percent. The banks sold the bonds but used the cash really for trading and have not lent the money into the economy. So obviously, there was no inflation or stimulation by this stupid swap with no strings attached as always.

Those expecting inflation have not only overlooked the money that leaves the system as China has $3.6 trillion in reserves, but the banks have $2.3 trillion of completely safe assets earning 0.25% that are also these “excess reserves”.. This is not money lent into the economy so it has not created jobs. It has been more hot money as banks are liquid enough to trade with that money rather than lend it out. They are hoarding cash.

The Fed should not pay interest on these reserves and then you will see that they will begin to be employed. They need to restrict their usage and.prevent that money from being used for trading. The banks are there to lend to the economy. If they will not lend to small business, they should pay interest to the fed on “excess reserves” not employed in the economy as LOANS prohibiting their use for proprietary trading. The Fed needs to limit credit card interest to no more than 10% or 3x rates paid on reserves (which is ever lower). The banks are gouging consumers sucking up disposable income by interest charges reducing the purchasing power of the consumer that further suppresses the economy, and then the government keep raising taxes. The consumer is getting squeezed from banks and government.

Banks should not be hedge funds nor should they be earning 20% interest rates when reserve rates are 0.25%. The $2.3 trillion in “excess reserves” is simply outrageous and ultimately deflationary for it is indistinguishable from hoarding. So Larry Summers should target the real hoarders and not the people.
Banks will scream at what I am saying while they mull it over in Washington behind closed doors. However, food stores do not earn keystone (2x cost) as do clothing and jewelry stores. Banks should not be allowed to gouge consumers to increase their highest rates of returns. We use to have limits on interest rates until Volcker removed them so he could raise rates into 1981. The consumer has been screwed ever since and the national debt exploded that is bow driving up taxes.

Banks should not be hedge funds nor should they be earning 20% interest rates when reserve rates are 0.25%. The $2.3 trillion in “excess reserves” is simply outrageous and ultimately deflationary for it is indistinguishable from hoarding. So Larry Summers should target the real hoarders and not the people.
Everything that needs to be said has already been said.
But since no one was listening, everything must be said again.
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Rasta
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Re: Hooimijt november 2013

Post by Rasta »

Even relativeren. Beter een jaar of twee te vroeg, dan één dag te laat. Het gaat niet om speculeren, maar om zekerstelling. En moet je zekerstelling met 100% doen, of met 10%? Dat is een persoonlijke vraag die een ieder zelf moet stellen.

Maar ook Marty kan niet zien wat de toekomst brengt. Hij kan enkel op zijn modellen afgaan, die zo goed zijn als de data die er in zit, en geeft geen absolute zekerheid. Misschien ontbreekt er een cyclus van vulkaanuitbarstingen, eens per 10.000 jaar. Tja, kleine kans, grote impact. En omdat nu alles al zo aan elkaar is gelijmd, lijkt me dat de factor onvoorzien toch best wel snel kan optreden. Hoeft geen vulkaan te zijn, maar kan ook een volksopstand zijn ergens in een onbeduidend land, waardoor locale banken omvallen, en er internationale banken worden meegezogen. Zitten we zo maar aan de bail-in, die het Westerse volk (eindelijk?) wakker schudt?
Eventually there will be an awakening, a balancing of the scales and a bill to be paid, and for that I hold gold - Jim Sinclair
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Spruitje
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Re: Hooimijt november 2013

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Da's 'n visie die ik ook deel Rasta, ik volg het MA-verhaal wel maar er zijn parameters (in de de loop van de geschiedenis een steeds grotere weerslag hebben op de wereldeconomie) dat die onmogelijk kunnen vervat zitten in het geheel, het ECM -die ik wel kan volgen- moet ook die factoren ondergaan.
Of het bvb. misgaat in één van de kernreactoren in Fukushima kan NOOIT door MA voorspeld worden en gaat WEL 'n effect hebben op de wereldeconomie als het ginds ferm mis gaat.
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- William Arthur Ward -
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Indiana Jones
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Re: Hooimijt november 2013

Post by Indiana Jones »

Eens, maar alles beter dan louter "Wishful thinking according to what might be pleasing to imagine, instead of by appealing to evidence, rationality, or reality". :D
Everything that needs to be said has already been said.
But since no one was listening, everything must be said again.
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Spruitje
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Re: Hooimijt november 2013

Post by Spruitje »

Bekijk het als 'n boer die met een tikje op de koe ze de juiste weg wijst.
Niet van toepassing op schapen. ;)

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Study while others are sleeping; work while others are loafing; prepare while others are playing; and dream while others are wishing.
- William Arthur Ward -
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Indiana Jones
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Re: Hooimijt november 2013

Post by Indiana Jones »

Mmmmm, één tikje zei je toch .....

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Everything that needs to be said has already been said.
But since no one was listening, everything must be said again.
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Paul
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Re: Hooimijt november 2013

Post by Paul »

Armstrong dacht dat zelf ook. Dat er cycles zouden zijn die je zou kunnen missen. Inmiddels niet meer.
Ik denk ook van niet. Alles draait om pi. Letterlijk. zelfs de grote equinox van 25800 jaar. (3 * 8,6 jaar (= pi * 1000 dagen)) * 1000 jaar. Ons hele denken gaat komende 100 jaar veranderen als we deze klap overleven. Once you know you can not unknow.
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