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Re: Hooimijt Oktober 2011

Posted: 13 Oct 2011, 20:09
by Boefke
Indy, waar kan ik vinden dat Duisenberg in 2002 heeft gezegd dat de euro een store of value is, kan me dit niet voorstellen eigenlijk. Quote?

Acceptance speech by Dr Willem F Duisenberg, Aachen 2002

Posted: 13 Oct 2011, 21:22
by Indiana Jones
Boefke wrote:Indy, waar kan ik vinden dat Duisenberg in 2002 heeft gezegd dat de euro een store of value is, kan me dit niet voorstellen eigenlijk. Quote?

Hoi,

er zijn zoveel misverstanden over deze speech, zoveel aannames en zoveel speculaties, dat ik hem maar een keer vanaf de website van de BIS (Bank of International Settlements) in zijn geheel publiceer.
En ...... in the end ..... haalt Armstrong hier de echte angel uit.

=============================

bijgaand de officiële speech, afkomstig van de BIS-website:
http://www.bis.org/review/r020510d.pdf

Acceptance speech by Dr Willem F Duisenberg, President of the European Central Bank, Aachen,
9 May 2002.
* * *
Ladies and Gentlemen,
For the first time, the Charlemagne Prize Association has decided to honour not an individual or a group of persons, but an object. You have chosen to pay tribute to "the euro – our money".

For more than a decade now, monetary union has been a focus of public attention and a major issue of public debate. The depth of feeling generated by the euro, whether enthusiasm or hostility, has been far greater than what we are used to in this typically unglamorous field of economic management
that is monetary policy.

In fact, a lot of the attention gained by the euro was and is directed not so much at the currency itself, but more at the underlying political vision, of which it has become the symbol.

By accepting today the Charlemagne Prize on behalf of the euro, I would like to pass on the credit for it to those who forged that vision of Europe and turned it into reality. Among them were Helmut Kohl and François Mitterand, who jointly won this prize in 1988.

The vision of a united Europe was born, let us not forget, from a desire for peace and prosperity in a continent which was so often divided by internecine conflict, and which embroiled the rest of the world in two wars within two generations.

It would be inaccurate to say that the vision of a united Europe was born solely out of the horrors of the First and Second World Wars. It existed long beforehand. But significantly, it was from these two conflicts that the founding fathers of the current process of European integration found the strength to
succeed where earlier visionaries had failed.

In the 1920s, an Austrian diplomat, Count Coudenhove-Kalergi, emerged as the founder of the European movement. He remarked that "even more than a common history, it is a common destiny that makes the union of the people of Europe a necessity". Incidentally, and unsurprisingly, he went on to become the first person to receive the Charlemagne Prize. And as Aristide Briand, the French statesman, later pointed out, it is the mutual vulnerability of the people of Europe – if only because of the geography of our continent – which creates the conditions for solidarity, and the pressing need for mutual confidence.

This, in essence, was the message conveyed by Robert Schuman exactly 52 years ago today, in his famous declaration that led to the creation of the European Coal and Steel Community and that historians generally recognise as the starting point of the process of European integration. L'Europe – these are the words of Schuman – ne se fera pas d'un coup, ni dans une construction d'ensemble. Elle se fera par des réalisations concrètes, créant d'abord une solidarité de fait. Europe will not be made all at once, or according to a single plan. It will be built through concrete achievements, which create a de facto solidarity.

How the euro contributes to this solidarity – perhaps more than any other achievement so far – is what I'd like to reflect on first of all. A social contract.

What is money? Economists know that money is defined by the functions it performs, as a means of exchange, a unit of account and a store of value.
But, just as importantly, money is also defined by the community for whom it performs these functions.
Because it is an economic instrument for each of its users, it is also a political and cultural bond between them. Consider this simple fact: we engage in an exchange of goods and services everyday by using money as the means of exchange; and we offer our labour in exchange for money, which, in itself, has no value. We only do this because we believe that we will, in turn, be able to exchange that money for more goods or services.

This fact tells us much about the confidence that we place in money itself. And it tells us much more about the confidence that we place in each other. Hence, money is, in essence, a social contract.

The euro, probably more than any other currency, represents the mutual confidence at the heart of our community. It is the first currency that has not only severed its link to gold, but also its link to the nation-state. It is not backed by the durability of the metal or by the authority of the state.

Indeed, what Sir Thomas More said of gold five hundred years ago – that it was made for men and that it had its value by them – applies very well to the euro.

Every currency is a symbol of the community it serves. It is a symbol of the society as a whole, but also represents the political and cultural bonds between the members of that society. Surely this uniting power must have been felt – I am even tempted to say, physically – by those who have
travelled from one euro area country to another this year.

From single market to single currency It is not enough to say that the euro is the symbol of a large European community. As a matter of fact, the introduction of the euro also goes back to the economic interests that it materialises. In line with the functionalist approach to European integration taken by Schuman and Monnet, the broader European vision was to be achieved by embarking upon economic integration first.

In 1957, when the European Economic Community was established, its objective was to establish the free circulation of goods, services, capital and labour. This was achieved, after the ratification of the European Single Act in 1986, with the creation of the Single Market in 1993.

The four markets for goods and services, capital and labour are exactly those that money serves. It is their boundaries that define the area within which money serves the public as a means of exchange, a unit of account and a store of value. Seen from this perspective, the conclusion seems natural: if
money is a public good at the level of the Single Market, then it is at that same level that a single currency should be established.

In the context of the Single Market, the establishment of a single currency was the way to ensure that citizens would benefit in full from all the functions of money. Far from removing money from people, monetary union has given it back to them. A second contract.

That the euro has economic origins does not reduce its significance as a social contract. However, its success as a social contract is only possible because it is rooted in a second accord, a constitutional contract, between the citizens who own it and the institution to which they have assigned the task of
protecting it.

The recognition that the management of the currency, being a policy function, requires a constitutional backing is not exactly new. In 1360, the French bishop and philosopher Nicolas Oresme was among the first to successfully argue that money did not belong to the state, but to "the community and [to]
each of its members".

One can only give credit to the architects of the Maastricht Treaty. They recognised the need for the functions of money to be provided at EU level. The architects of the Treaty also understood that a single currency can only fulfil its monetary functions and its role as an integrating force so long as it
retains its value. Therefore, they drew up a solid monetary constitution to protect those functions and its stability.

The chapter of the Treaty referring to money, in essence, is a contract binding the people of Europe to their monetary authority. Like any contract, it contains five elements.

*Firstly, the definition of the interest at stake, which is to provide the economy and society with a medium that performs in a reliable and sustainable fashion the three functions of money. In one word, the purpose of the contract is to preserve the integrity of the currency.

*Secondly, the contract establishes the institution entrusted with that mission, which is, of course, the European Central Bank and the central banks of the countries of the euro area, jointly referred to as the Eurosystem.

*Thirdly, the contract specifies that the primary objective of the central bank is the maintenance of price stability – which is also the benchmark of its success. The central bank is accountable for this objective above all others. The consensus on this fundamental point is derived from academic research and empirical experience over many decades. It is generally accepted that unless the central bank succeeds in maintaining price stability, there is little else it can contribute to economic growth and prosperity. In this respect, the euro has contributed both to the solidarity, and to the stability, of the
community it serves.

The Maastricht Treaty likewise defines the tools with which the central bank carries out its mission – notably, its independence – as well as the constraints within which it operates. But no contract would be complete without a specification of the responsibilities of its signatories, and procedures for monitoring the fulfilment of the contract. The Treaty also meets these concerns. My colleagues on the Executive Board of the ECB and myself regularly report to the European Parliament – and through it to the general public – on our policy. Via this channel and via the regular reports we
issue on our activities, people can judge for themselves if we are fulfilling the contractual obligations and preserving the integrity of their money.

The legitimacy and credibility of the constitutional contract that underpins the euro also rely on the contract's durability. No contract could inspire confidence if its terms were to change constantly.

Since I mentioned Nicolas Oresme as an early theorist of the constitutional nature of money, I will also quote his words on this matter, to which, 640 years later, I can entirely subscribe: "Moneta debet esse quasi quaedam lex et quaedam ordinatio firma". Money must be as solid as a law. This applies to the
constitutional value of money as well as to its economic value. It was wise, therefore, that the drafters of the Treaty chose to make the monetary constitution of Europe not only solid, but the most solid in the world, in the sense that it is possibly the most difficult to alter.

Towards a third contract We know that such a bold step as the single currency was conceived as part of a wider process of uniting Europe not only economically but also politically.

Today, a new path is being explored: the Convention on the Future of Europe has been established. Its task is to make proposals on furthering the construction of a united Europe as well as on streamlining and democratising the structure of the Union.
If it succeeds in this task, the Convention will help to complement the existing economic constitution with effective and transparent political structures and processes. In the same way that the economic constitution, because it is based on sound principles, is capable of meeting the challenges of the
future, so will Europe as a whole be better equipped to meet its citizens' expectations.

So will Europe as a whole be better able to meet the challenges it faces, be they from within or from without, and to assume the international responsibilities commensurate with its size and its importance. We may ask
what we can expect from the Convention in our main field of interest and responsibility, safeguarding the value of our currency. When quoting Nicolas Oresme, I already implicitly gave my view. I consider the existing economic constitution, as set down in the present Treaties, to be, on the whole,
satisfactory, based on sound principles and capable of meeting the challenges of the future.

In particular, this applies to the fundamental features of monetary union and the ESCB, the elements of the monetary contract I just referred to.

Conclusion

Since the monetary chapter of the constitution, at least, has been completed, let me also bring my remarks to a conclusion:
For more than ten years, the euro – as a goal – has crystallised hopes and fears, and has attracted praise and criticism, not only in relation to the prospect of a single currency but also in relation to the entire process of European integration. The introduction of the euro was a momentous event for
Europe, made possible because of the two contracts I have been talking about.
The first, money itself, is the contract that creates ties between the people of the euro area – and also forges links with all other users of the euro, wherever they may be. Even though the euro has formally existed for more than three years, the reality of this contract has only been fully understood with the
arrival of euro banknotes and coins. The banknotes, in their own way, are a physical manifestation of the social contract that is money. Thus, the euro is the symbol of the European Union, understood as a community of people.

4 BIS Review 30/2002

Re: Hooimijt Oktober 2011

Posted: 13 Oct 2011, 21:34
by Paul
ja Armstrong zit bovenop de berg. snapt het volkomen.
hij weet exact wat er moet gebeuren en ook hoe dat te doen.
die conferentie in philadelphia gaat echt heel speciaal worden ...

ik vrees alleen dat we dr eerst de val van europa voor nodig hebben om de boel in beweging te zetten en dan is het maar de vraag of er dan nog wat te voorkomen valt. maar dat we gaan veranderen en dat systeem er anders uit komt te zien. kan niet anders.

europa niet veel tijd meer. hoeft niet eens een default te zijn, kan ook al het vooruitlopen erop(anticipation) zijn omdat de markt erop rekent waardoor het ineens klapt. kan overal vandaan komen. is een vergiet inmiddels. geen hozen meer aan.

en de mensen om je heen
die boeken lekker een vakantie

de klap gaat groot worden mensen. amai.

Re: Hooimijt Oktober 2011

Posted: 13 Oct 2011, 21:48
by Indiana Jones
Paul wrote:ja Armstrong zit bovenop de berg. snapt het volkomen.[....].
Als ik Armstrong lees over de Euro, hou ik iedere keer die speech van Duisenberg er tegenaan. Toen ik 'FOA' las hield ik er slechts die ene rode quote uit die speech tegenaan.
Armstrong gaat verder .... ik heb die speech nu een aantal keer gelezen en Martin is telkens maar weer Spot-On in mijn beleving.

Dat doet niets af aan de mogelijkheden van freegold in mijn perceptie, maar de relatie tussen freegold en de Euro ontgaat mij als ik de hele speech lees.
Dáár lag ook mijn verwarring.... dáárom stelde ik op het vorige forum zoveel vragen (waar maar geen antwoord op kwam behalve van RariNantes -dat het allemaal niet zo zeker was-) .... dáárom kon ik jouw interpretatie van die UoA ook goed verstaan (itt sommige anderen) en dáárom kon/kan ik Armstrong nu juist zo goed plaatsen.

Freegold is nog steeds niet van mijn lijstje, want OOK Armstrong spreekt over FREEGOLD, maar dan wel in een HEEL ANDERE context.
Dat is de recente onzekere switch in mijn gedachtengang.
Over die Armstrong context heb ik nog wel vragen, maar die komen later. Eerst maar eens consensus over een nieuw topic.

En dat is dan NIET, FOA versus Armstrong, maar Armstrong in line with Duisenberg....... tenminste, zo zie ik het ....... maar misschien zie ik het niet goed .....kweetutniet .... :oops:

Martin Armstrong

Posted: 13 Oct 2011, 21:49
by Rasta
Armstrong op King World News Blog

Martin Armstrong - Lessons from ’87 Crash & What’s Coming

When asked to tie the lessons from the 80’s into what we will see going forward, Armstrong stated, “Volatility will increase 50% over the next two years and then towards the latter part of about 2016 it will double again. Volatility will increase dramatically, that’s the way markets work. If you boil a pot of water when it gets to the boiling point, all of the sudden the water just bursts into bubbles. That’s the way a market is. So we haven’t seen anything like that in gold.

Interview volgt zaterdag ochtend

Re: Hooimijt Oktober 2011

Posted: 13 Oct 2011, 21:56
by Rasta
Indiana Jones wrote:....

En dat is dan NIET, FOA versus Armstrong, maar Armstrong in line with Duisenberg....... tenminste, zo zie ik het ....... maar misschien zie ik het niet goed .....kweetutniet .... :oops:
Het een sluit het ander niet uit toch? De contouren staan, maar de details .....

Re: Hooimijt Oktober 2011

Posted: 13 Oct 2011, 22:28
by Paul
voor mij is het ook geen wedstrijdje verder, ik zoek de perfecte theorie, niet meer niet minder.
FOA is leuk en leerzaam, prachtig geschreven ook, maar voldoet uiteindelijk niet. teveel hiaten. de werkelijkheid is ingewikkelder dan dat gewoon. helaas. voor ons als euromannen.

Armstrong zit met zn tijdstheorieën bovenop wat compleet nieuws.
fascinerende stof. de fractale werkelijkheid bestaat vanwege het fractale van tijd !
zn monetaire verhaal klopt ook, zn vertrouwensmodel is spot on, daar gaat ie (ook mainstream) echt wereldberoemd mee worden.

bij mij zit het m nog in de uitwerking praktisch gezien. daar zie ik ook de theorie van lietaer nog doorkomen.(Rasta bedankt daarvoor !)
ik denk net als lietaer dat we meerdere soorten geld nodig hebben. dus we gaan niet alleen splitsen qua monetaire functie maar ook nog in maatschappelijke functie vermoed ik. daar heb ik Armstrong nog niet over gehoord. is ook nu niet het meest dringende. toen ik met m mailde heeft ie me daar ook niet tegen gesproken uiteindelijk.

en complementaire munten kunnen we zelf al doen ook. dat begint van onderaf. en is al bezig.
lijkt me de enige praktische manier om politiek en economie te kunnen scheiden.
geef de politiekers gewoon hunnie eigen munt, maar dan wel eentje waarin de tegenprestatie al geleverd is.
geadministreerd in uren. is volkomen logisch om te gaan doen.

Freegold in een nieuwe blauwdruk

Posted: 13 Oct 2011, 22:43
by Indiana Jones
Rasta wrote:
Indiana Jones wrote:....

En dat is dan NIET, FOA versus Armstrong, maar Armstrong in line with Duisenberg....... tenminste, zo zie ik het ....... maar misschien zie ik het niet goed .....kweetutniet .... :oops:
Het een sluit het ander niet uit toch? De contouren staan, maar de details .....
Hoi Rasta,

Neen, niet de details, het zijn juist de contouren die niet op de juiste plek staan. Ik zal dan toch maar schrijven hoe ik het zie (niet mijn gelijk, maar mijn interpretatie)
De hele FOA_goldtrail zal Armstrong zich in grote lijnen ook wel in kunnen vinden, met uitzondering van de interpretatie van die rood gemarkeerde zin in Duisenbergs speech. Armstrong gelooft niet in een Freegold Store of Value of Money Store of Value
En dan komt FREEGOLD in een HEEL ANDER perspectief te staan
.
Immers, money is NO Store of Value (economists say so -Duisenberg-) & (people think so -Amstrong). Money Store of Value is a PERCEPTION !
Tsjah ...... dan dreigt de euro freegold conclusie uit FOA's trail letterlijk in het water te vallen.

========

Hoe dan anders ? want Armstrong schrijft ook over A Free Price of Gold.

Welnu ........ de Euro- en Dollar e.a. valuta verliezen vertrouwen (het vertrouwen waarop Duisenberg, als belangrijkste aspect, stipuleert -speech in post hierboven-)
Armstrong schrijft dat tijdens valutaire crises in Wealth assets gevlucht wordt, zoals Kunst, Antiek ..... en ook Goud. Goud is dan de beste keus omdat het worldwide uniform tangible is.Wordt nu de sovereign debtcrisis maar groot genoeg en komen banken steeds meer onder druk te staan cq defaulten, dan vlucht men steeds meer in goud totdat goud zelf ook onder druk komt te staan vanwege het Comex (crimex) gehannes door de VS.

Op dat moment stijgt de vraag naar fysiek goud explosief (Armstrong- The markets ultimately reign governments). Als de vraag naar goud maar groot genoeg wordt gaan investeerders vanzelf twijfelen aan de marktomvang (papier = 10 x fysiek) en zullen fysiek goud slechts als tier 1 prefereren in plaats van papiergoud.

In perceptie (een keyword) gaat fysiek goud dan fiatgeld prijzen. Omdat de VS de goudprijs van fysiek niet meer via de comex kunnen reguleren ontstaat er een vrije fysiek goudprijs. Maar omdat de Euro en nu ook al andere valuta de goudprijs losgekoppeld hebben, zal de dollar er het meeste last van hebben omdat de dollar nog immer NIET free of gold is.

Voila ! Free Physical Gold that prices Fiatmoney ......... :lol:

Totdat het vertrouwen in fiatgeld weer hersteld is (via Bretton Woods 3.0 of Paris 4.0 of Bejin 5.0 .... whatever) en dan is de hype in goud ten einde en stroomt het vertrouwen weer naar fiatgeld terug. Hoever en tot welke prijs en in welke valuta .... zal afhangen van het vertrouwen in die specifieke valuta.


Zo komen zowel Armstrong alsmede FOA ergens op hetzelfde punt uit, maar vanuit een totaal andere benadering. FOA komt er via de Euro en Armstrong komt er via de vrije marktwerking en zijn cycles.
Het verhaal van Amrstrong kan ik echter veeeeel beter in de Duisenberg speech plaatsen, zonder alle FOA franje en frutsels en zonder euro.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=if-UzXIQ5vw&ob=av3e

Re: Hooimijt Oktober 2011

Posted: 13 Oct 2011, 22:51
by Paul
en vrijgoud van Armstrong is inderdaad een andere als van FOFOA.

je zou zelfs kunnen stellen dat alleen in de Armstrong versie goud echt vrij is.(smile)
het is een hedge en verder niks.
in de goud MTM versie zit je toch weer met vertrouwenskwestie(is het er wel) als het er op aan komt.
met een onafhankelijke world reserve currency hoeft dat ook niet meer. mensen kunnen prive in goud sparen en zich zo verzekeren.

waarom zou je die macht teruggeven aan de overheid/banken straks ? daar willen we nu juist vanaf ...

aansluitend nog op bovenstaand stuk van indy, het is allemaal perceptie inderdaad.
dat maakt het ook zo verwarrend voor mensen, maar het was, is en blijft niet meer dan een vertrouwensspelletje ...

Re: Hooimijt Oktober 2011

Posted: 13 Oct 2011, 22:55
by Indiana Jones
Paul wrote:en vrijgoud van Armstrong is inderdaad een andere als van FOFOA....
PERCEPTIE is imo het keyword bij Armstrong.
En als je perceptie verkeerd interpreteert (FOA) krijg je een verknipte waarheid

Tenminste ...... zo zie ik het op dit moment en ben heel benieuwd wat anderen ervan vinden en ..... dat ik voldoende overtuigd wordt om mijn mening weer verder bij te stellen ......