Ik kwam een linkje tegen naar de website van Ann Barnhardt.
Zij geeft een mogelijk scenario weer over de comex default gedateerd 15 december 2011
Let's say that the physical silver market is trading far lower than the silver futures price. This is what is called a WEAK BASIS. The BASIS is the relationship between the cash market and the futures market and is very simply defined as (CASH minus FUTURES). If cash silver can be bought at $25.00 per ounce and the futures are at $30.00 per ounce, the cash is $5.00 under the futures. When cash is under the futures, this is called a WEAK basis.
Up until now, what would a metals trader do? In very simple terms, he would buy the cash silver at $25.00 per ounce and then simultaneously sell the futures at $30.00. Because he has short-sold the futures, he could hold the contract to expiry and then deliver the $25.00 cash silver he bought to make good on the contract and receive his $30.00 price. So his simple net profit would be $5.00 per ounce. As many traders saw this spread and simultaneously executed this same strategy of buying the cash and selling the futures, what effect would this have? Right. It would cause the cash-futures spread to move back in toward convergence by pushing the futures price down (lots of sellers) and propping the cash market up (lots of buyers).
Now the opposite scenario: a STRONG basis. Let's say cash silver is trading at $32.00 and the futures are trading at $28.00. A trader might take physical silver that he has in inventory and sell it in the cash market, and then immediately take those proceeds and buy back and equal number of ounces in the futures market and take delivery. Since the same number of ounces in the futures market cost $4.00 per ounce LESS, he would end up with the same number of ounces in his inventory PLUS $4.00 per ounce in CASH in his pocket. If he and many other traders saw this condition and they all sold cash silver and bought the futures, this would, again, converge the spread between the cash market and the futures market.
link naar de site
http://barnhardt.biz/
Hier een stukje van Jim Willie
The Barnhardt story has been recounted in this report. The consequences and implications are enormous, staggering, and sweeping. The changes from the MF Global failure and theft of private segregated accounts will come in time, perhaps accelerated by another similar event to slam the message home. The Syndicate has turned desperate, resorting to theft in the open, which results in direct consequences. Ann Barnhardt explained how the COMEX will fade away into oblivion. Its final chapter will be marred by a grand price divergence, where the futures market price declines from shunned avoidance, while the cash physical market price holds steady then rises. Many including the Jackass had thought that a slew of delivery demands would force a drain in their gold & silver inventory, eventually leading to a slew of lawsuits, together to shut them down as a corrupt enterprise arena. The MF Global theft reveals the alternative route. The gold cartel led by JPMorgan and secretly by the USFed will not go quietly. They have resorted to theft of private accounts on the open stage. The backlash has begun and will gain strength. She offered many cogent arguments with detail on how the COMEX will be ignored from distrust and suspicion of further thefts, as clients remove funds and close accounts. Here are her main points. They apply to Gold & Silver.
Points
Arbitrage is set to kick in. Players will buy at the cheaper corrupt paper market in COMEX and sell in the higher honest physical market, wherever brokers can match to make deals. (It is the same phenomenon that ripped the Euro sovereign bond market apart, as the German Govt Bond yields remained much lower than the Spanish and Greek.) Until recently, traders could sell at a higher futures price than the spot. But a reversal has occurred in recent weeks and months. They will take advantage of a strong basis, buy at the discount offered by COMEX, and sell into the cash spot physical market.
A linchpin holds the market together. Keeping the futures markets tied to the underlying cash physical market is the fact that the futures contracts permit taking delivery. That delivery mechanism just broke as linchpin in full view. The futures market has lost viability and trustworthiness because of the MFG collapse and theft. Soon the delivery mechanism will be widely recognized as not reliable. Neither is holding cash in a futures account reliable any longer.
The entire delivery mechanism has been corrupted and undermined. Taking delivery has meant a holding of physical metal bars is stored in a certified vault with your name attached. No longer are such holdings considered safe. Thefts occurred, and lawsuits have occurred to decided upon ownership of bars in dispute.
The de-coupling process comes when arbitrageurs finally lose all confidence in market interaction dynamics, as the cash market will lose connection on price from the futures market. Players will not be willing to take the risk of having their money, positions, and physical metals stolen or confiscated. The former forces to ensure convergence of the cash and physical markets will have disappeared, a direct consequence of vanished accounts and vanished trust.
As players flee the futures market, the paper futures prices will decline. The cash physical market will hold steady. The divergence will come and be noticed, then be widely publicized. The players will realize that the physical market is the only remaining game to be played with honest rules in effect. The cash dealers will ignore the futures prices, no longer a valid price discovery, seeing that market demand for their physical inventory is robust, and maintain their prices steady. Later, they will even raise the physical prices. Then later still, the parabolic spike comes for physical Gold & Silver.
