The study goes back several centuries (no joke) in the analysis of government accounts, bank balance sheets, interest rates, stock and bond prices. For e.g. the Holland data goes back 495 years.
Based on this really long term data on return the study concludes interesting facts such as:
1. "In Holland (our longest time series), 10 year yields hit their lowest level in 495 years worth of history back in June this year and are only around 20bps higher now."
2. "The most important global benchmark - 10 year US Treasuries - also hit its all time low
(1.39%) in July, with data going back all the way to 1790."
3. "With yields so low and money printing so historically high, it is fascinating and unique to find
ourselves in a period where persistent deficits are the norm and have been now for over four
decades."
4. "...what is clear is that since the Global Financial Crisis first hit in 2007, the developed world has
overall seen no growth and no deleveraging. Virtually every country now has more debt than
they did in 2007"
5. "So after 41 years of global fiat currencies and an unparalleled amount of debt that is proving very difficult to shift, we really are venturing into the unknown."
6. "How will this all end?
...we are entering unknown territory in a number of economic and financial indicators, even if we extend the analysis back through hundreds of years. Perhaps our quickest path to renewed and sustained prosperity would be to restructure Trillions of Dollars of Global debt artificially accumulated in the 1971-2007 period, especially in the latter years. This way we could ensure a quicker return to a more efficient allocation of scarce economic resources. In a free market (capitalism in fact), we would have already seen such an outcome but the authorities have now spent 5 years ensuring this hasn’t happened. The reality is that the short-term pain of such an outcome would not be tolerable to politicians
and most modern day central bankers.
Therefore the most likely scenario is that money printing is here to stay across the globe until it eventually works and restores stability or it creates its own problems further down the line.There is a precedent for individual countries expanding their central bank balance sheets this high before but not for so many countries acting simultaneously in such a manner. Eventually we think inflation will win out as wehaven’t seen a year of global deflation (using our median YoY measure compiled from 24
countries) since 1933. The twentieth century has been all about loosening ties with Gold,
thus allowing for varying degrees of money creation and the dramatically reduced risk of
deflation."
"Defaults, deflation and hyperinflation are still all possible in many parts of the world."
"The best strategy for this decade remains an accumulation of core, higher quality, real assets on dips."
-Is this the end of fractional banking, the elimination of Goldman Sachs; JP Morgan; Citybank c.s. power and the return of political power over money supply in Nation States ?
-Is this the epilog to Bretton Woods 2.0 ?
-Is this report strangling the intentions Mayer Amschel Rothschild had around 1700/1800 ?
Re: Haystack Q4 2012
Posted: 23 Oct 2012, 13:17
by bailouts4ever
Something really weird is happening in Germany today.
Within three days Germany's gold reserves moved into the mass media coverage.
Based on a second request by Germany's accounting court the inventory of the 3400 tons gold reserves will now finally be taken. The Bundesbank has given in (based on Jens Weidmann's recent statement one could speculate that they we were more than happy to do it) and will start counting the reserves. Up until now only 80 tons are stored within Germany, the rest of 3320 tons is stored in London, Paris and New York.
Thus, the BBK today announced taking parts of the reserves home, having them melted down for "quality checks" (!!! - Why that? Looking for Tungsten there?) in order to start a proper inventory.
Not sure if you got any response on it, but along with the IMF paper, I do get the feeling we are approaching the end game. The real issues, and rigorous solutions are now being put forward, and not any longer by an internet interest group / minority. It didn't reach main street media yet, but that is a matter of time. When Germany finally starts to repatriate their gold (only 50 tons per year? That sounds like they can only claim up to 200 tons out of 3000....) the discussion IS main street.