Martin A. Armstrong - Economics

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Adamus
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Re: Martin A. Armstrong - Economics

Post by Adamus »

Indiana Jones wrote:En op DIT punt ben ik het dus oneens met Armstrong, want hij mist iets ..... LEAP2020 :!:

Armstrong:
That said; the US Dollars still remains the best of the three ugly sisters. Japan and Europe are in far worse shape than the United States. We will see both Europe and Japan collapse BEFORE the United States, SO prepare for the worst-yet hope for the best.


edit: 22:23
Armstrong negeert daarbij ook Sinclair, die de Euro in heel zwaar weer ziet liggen, maar toch de grootste schade voor de Dollar ziet optreden.
Tel ik daarbij de Goldtrail van Another op, waaruit (gecombineerd met de periode erna tot op heden) toch duidelijk naar voren komt dat men de Amerikaanse Dollar overheersing in het Midden Oosten, Iran, China en Zuid Amerika liever kwijt dan rijk is ..............

dan vraag ik me soms af waarom Armstrong de ene keer tot in detail de werkelijkheid van ons financiële systeem interpreteert EN de werkelijkheid van de Amerikaanse politiek (die hij met het oude Rome vergelijkt) en tegelijkertijd negeert welke hervormingen- en demografische verschuivingen er in Europa gaande zijn ..... :roll:
Conspiracy: kan anders niet meer zonder gevaar voor zijn hachie de straat op?
Ik zie niets over zijn absentie van de laatste tien jaar. Ik zie ook Ron Paul et al. geen woord vuil maken aan MA. Misschien heb ik niet opgelet?
Istie een begaafde verwrongen geest?
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Indiana Jones
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Re: Martin A. Armstrong - Economics

Post by Indiana Jones »

Sinds enkele jaren geleden, toen hij nog opgesloten zat, las ik zijn getypte stukken via scribd (daar door vrienden gepubliceerd).
Niet of nauwelijks taalfouten en opbouwende structuur.

Sinds hij uit het gevang is publiceert hij PDF's en E-files, vol met taalfouten, soms kromme zinsbouw, valt hij steeds vaker in herhalingen en mis ik soms de gezonde opbouw in bepaalde stukken. En dát, terwijl hij zichzelf weer in de markt probeert te zetten.

Ik kopieer onderstaand zijn eigen woorden, als ik me een beetje over e.e.a. ga verbazen:

Now What's Going On?
Everything that needs to be said has already been said.
But since no one was listening, everything must be said again.
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Paul
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Re: Martin A. Armstrong - Economics

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Adamus wrote:Ik zie ook Ron Paul et al. geen woord vuil maken aan MA. Misschien heb ik niet opgelet?
Istie een begaafde verwrongen geest?
Ron Paul is actief met de zaak van Armstrong bezig geweest toen ie nog vast zat ...
"Taxes are a barbaric relic of the past"
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Rasta
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Re: Martin A. Armstrong - Economics

Post by Rasta »

Indiana Jones wrote:Sinds enkele jaren geleden, toen hij nog opgesloten zat, las ik zijn getypte stukken via scribd (daar door vrienden gepubliceerd).
Niet of nauwelijks taalfouten en opbouwende structuur.

Sinds hij uit het gevang is publiceert hij PDF's en E-files, vol met taalfouten, soms kromme zinsbouw, valt hij steeds vaker in herhalingen en mis ik soms de gezonde opbouw in bepaalde stukken. En dát, terwijl hij zichzelf weer in de markt probeert te zetten.
....
Misschien heeft het te maken, dat hij nu heel veel minder tijd heeft om te werken aan zijn stukken. En toch spuugt hij een enorme hoeveelheid aan informatie uit. In de bak had hij misschien meer tijd om zijn stukken te overdenken (te structureren)? Wat hij nodig heeft is een team die zijn stukken reviseert, maar ja.....
Ik zie trouwens ook in zijn stukken een heleboel herhaling, en eigenlijk weinig nieuws. Met uitzondering de commentaren op de actualiteit.
Eventually there will be an awakening, a balancing of the scales and a bill to be paid, and for that I hold gold - Jim Sinclair
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Indiana Jones
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Re: Martin A. Armstrong - Economics

Post by Indiana Jones »

Rasta wrote:
Indiana Jones wrote:Sinds enkele jaren geleden, toen hij nog opgesloten zat, las ik zijn getypte stukken via scribd (daar door vrienden gepubliceerd).
Niet of nauwelijks taalfouten en opbouwende structuur.

Sinds hij uit het gevang is publiceert hij PDF's en E-files, vol met taalfouten, soms kromme zinsbouw, valt hij steeds vaker in herhalingen en mis ik soms de gezonde opbouw in bepaalde stukken. En dát, terwijl hij zichzelf weer in de markt probeert te zetten.
....
Misschien heeft het te maken, dat hij nu heel veel minder tijd heeft om te werken aan zijn stukken. En toch spuugt hij een enorme hoeveelheid aan informatie uit. In de bak had hij misschien meer tijd om zijn stukken te overdenken (te structureren)? Wat hij nodig heeft is een team die zijn stukken reviseert, maar ja.....
Ik zie trouwens ook in zijn stukken een heleboel herhaling, en eigenlijk weinig nieuws. Met uitzondering de commentaren op de actualiteit.
t'is lastig de doorgronden wat er aan de hand is, maar ik lees er doorheen .... veroordeel hem er niet op.
Toch is het jammer, want hij wil zichzelf weer in de markt zetten en wat mij opvalt, valt anderen ook op lijkt me zo .....

Neemt niet weg dat ik het op enkele punten fundamenteel niet met hem eens ben, hoe goed geschreven dan ook ....
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Indiana Jones
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Re: Martin A. Armstrong - Economics

Post by Indiana Jones »

Indiana Jones wrote:
Rasta wrote:
Indiana Jones wrote:Sinds enkele jaren geleden, toen hij nog opgesloten zat, las ik zijn getypte stukken via scribd (daar door vrienden gepubliceerd).
Niet of nauwelijks taalfouten en opbouwende structuur.

Sinds hij uit het gevang is publiceert hij PDF's en E-files, vol met taalfouten, soms kromme zinsbouw, valt hij steeds vaker in herhalingen en mis ik soms de gezonde opbouw in bepaalde stukken. En dát, terwijl hij zichzelf weer in de markt probeert te zetten.
....
Misschien heeft het te maken, dat hij nu heel veel minder tijd heeft om te werken aan zijn stukken. En toch spuugt hij een enorme hoeveelheid aan informatie uit. In de bak had hij misschien meer tijd om zijn stukken te overdenken (te structureren)? Wat hij nodig heeft is een team die zijn stukken reviseert, maar ja.....
Ik zie trouwens ook in zijn stukken een heleboel herhaling, en eigenlijk weinig nieuws. Met uitzondering de commentaren op de actualiteit.
t'is lastig de doorgronden wat er aan de hand is, maar ik lees er doorheen .... veroordeel hem er niet op.
Toch is het jammer, want hij wil zichzelf weer in de markt zetten en wat mij opvalt, valt anderen ook op lijkt me zo .....

Neemt niet weg dat ik het op enkele punten fundamenteel niet met hem eens ben, hoe goed geschreven dan ook ....
En ik ben dus niet de enige die me verbaas. Toch blijf ik WEL Armstrong/s stukken lezen, want er zitten OOK hele zinnige opvattingen in.

http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/01/27/jim ... rediction/
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Paul
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Re: Martin A. Armstrong - Economics

Post by Paul »

http://totallygroovygirlfriday.wordpres ... /#comments

To clarify, may I please also add that my prior comment is related to Armstrong’s inflation/deflation link posted by gg, and gg’s comment that velocity was part of the definition of inflation (with respect to gg).

Also I did not first read the link to Sinclair’s comments on what Armstrong has been forecasting about the price of gold. Sinclair’s comments also deserve comment I think (gee I guess I am just in a disagreeable mood today!). Jim is criticizing Martin for being wrong in his forecast. I don’t think Armstrong has been wrong though. Without going back and highlighting ever single forecast in the past year’s essays, my take on Armstrong’s forecasts is that he has been fairly close. Armstrong has alluded to lower prices (like the 1100 target Jim refers to) but did not predict it. He allowed for it. Big difference. He gave some targets IF gold continued its downtrend. He also gave some targets if/when gold resumed its long term uptrend. Armstrong was in fact pretty close to the year end price he actually did forecast, if I am recalling correctly. Even in the most recent essay of his that gg is linking to, I am not reading Armstrong as predicting lower prices. He is simply stating he is not convinced the downtrend has been aborted.

Regarding Jim, I am getting more and more suspicious of commentators who steadfastly believe that gold *must* go up this year and who don’t pay respect to the idea that we have a multi trillion dollar unwind in derivatives hanging over our heads. Between the threat of a 700 trillion dollar derivative unwind, a panic out of gold by hedge funds, a possible temporary drop in the price of physical gold when the paper gold market blows up, the possibility of further gold leasing by central banks, manipulation shenanigans by the usual suspects, and 10 other reasons I can’t even imagine….. gold achieving Jim’s targets this year is not a done deal. Yes, the dollar may collapse and gold will go to the moon, but there are too many moving parts to say for sure what will happen. I doubt if even GOD knows what gold will do this year.
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Paul
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Re: Martin A. Armstrong - Economics

Post by Paul »

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/an ... /index.htm

steengoed stuk
Ik ben nog steeds VOLLEDIG met m eens
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Indiana Jones
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Re: Martin A. Armstrong - Economics

Post by Indiana Jones »

Toch maar weer eens een stukje Armstrong:
When fiat was the solution
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Fi ... /index.htm

Ik knip er één stukje uit (zie onderstaand):

'The Panic of 1789' waarin je kunt lezen hoe de prijs van toenmalige koperen munten in de toenmalige VS, helemaal de grond in geboord werd door overheden.
Als het $IMFS ten grave gedragen wordt, zal tussentijds goud prevaleren .... net zoals Sinclair zegt, als UoA; MoE en SoV.
Maar toch komt erna een moment dat overheden (Oost of West .... zelfs China :!: ) hun eigen overheids-munt voorop gaan stellen, goud de UoA en MoE weer verliest en daarna een hele stap terug zal moeten doen in SoV doordat goud simpelweg eventueel wel mag meedoen ..... MAAR NIET BESLISSEND zal zijn in de overheidsexpansie. Daarin is goud altijd second-in-command geweest (of thans zelfs minder) en zal nooit de eerste plaats bereiken ..... hooguit tijdelijk als overheden het zo gek gemaakt hebben, dat het vertrouwen in hun digits tijdelijk wegvalt.

Goud neemt dan tussentijds de rol van geld over, piekt vervolgens om daarna in de vorm van Sov weer op een lager waarde niveau te eindigen ... waarop het zal blijven hangen via de één of andere vorm van overheids-management.

JUIST DAAROM is het goed om altijd fysiek goud in de famlilie te houden, alsmede voedselvoorziening, water, energie en behuizing. In goede tijden kun je ervan genieten en in slechte tijden heb je het nodig om te kunnen blijven overleven. DAAROM en feitelijk NIETS ANDERS is het altijd goed om fysiek aan te houden, voor de familie te beschermen en binnen de familie te behouden .... voor barre tijden. ;)

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The Panic of 1789

Against this backdrop, the state of the coppers insofar as a viable money supply was particularly deplorable in New York where the only mint was Machin's counterfeiting operation. With the money supply flooded with underweight coppers that were now officially illegal, the public simply lost all confidence in coppers. It was in New York City during summer of 1789 the Panic of 1789 unfolding just a few months after George Washington became President and the French Revolution began.

February 4th, 1789 marked the election of George Washington and the birth of the United States government when he was inaugurated on April 30th, 1789. Meanwhile, unemployment in Paris reached about 150,000 out of a total work force of 600,000. This set the stage for the French Revolution. On July 11th, Louis XVI of France fired the popular Chief Minister Necker and the following day an angry Parisian mob demonstrated against the King’s decision to dismiss Minister Necker. Tensions were rising in Paris and the next day, July 13th, the people began to seize arms for the defense of Paris. Then on the memorable next day, July 14th, the French Revolution (1789–1799) began with citizens of Paris storming the Bastille to free seven prisoners. In rural areas, peasants began to attack noble manors. On August 4th, French members of the Constituent Assembly took an oath to end feudalism and abandon their privileges. By August 26th, the Declaration of the Rights of Man was proclaimed in France by the Constituent Assembly. In October 1789, about 7,000 women marched 12 miles (19 km) from Paris to Versailles to demand action. On December 23rd, a leaflet began to circulate in France accusing Marquis de Favras of plotting to rescue the royal family. Conspiracy plots began ushering the Reign of Terror.

The United States Department of the Treasury was founded on September 2nd, 1789 with the Department of State following on the 15thof that month. On September 24 – The Judiciary Act of 1789 establishes the federal judiciary and the United States Marshals Service. By September 29th, the US Department of War established the nation's first regular army.

The value of colonial coppers collapsed. It was on July 12th, 1789 when the New York Common Council recommended valuing coppers at 48 to the shilling compared to 15 to the shilling which had been the official value just across the river in New Jersey. Merchants refused to cooperate and soon coppers were being refused in trade at any price. Coins that had traded at 14 to the shilling in New York City were now completely worthless. An advertisement in the New York Daily Advertiser that appeared on July 24th, 1789 captured the financial chaos.


C O P P E R S,

.......................TAKEN for YORK RUM, on delivery, at No.
.......................21, Ferry-street, at SIXTY to the SHILLING, or
.......................10d per pound.

This was a hyperinflation of tangible coins where the CONFIDENCE simply collapsed. Rum dealers were now offering to take them at 60 coppers to the shilling reflecting a near 430% rate of inflation within one year. On August 3rd, 1789, the collapse in the value of money had continued where The Federal Gazette in Philadelphia reported the value of coppers had fallen now to 96 coppers to the shilling. The New York Packet on August 18th, 1789 it reported that business failures were everywhere and food was no longer available be it bread or vegetables in the marketplace. Not even full weight coppers were negotiable. The entire money supply became suspect. The Federal government abandoned all hope of issuing copper coins and sold their supply full weight Fugios to a speculator at a discount. The speculator, Royal Flint, received the coins in June of 1789. The panic had already begun.

The value of the Fugios collapsed to at best 29 cents for every 100 Fugio cents. He lost everything and ended up in debtor's prison unable to pay what he had bargained for.

Image

The epic center of the Panic of 1789 was New York City and Philadelphia. On August 6th, 1789 the Bank of America in Philadelphia printed 1d and 3d small change notes to help alleviate the economic crisis. The notes were printed by Benjamin Bache in Philadelphia on paper that had been supplied by Benjamin Franklin with a marbled border along the top of the sheet. This emergency solution was greeted with great eagerness and this lead to a real boom in small change note production. Here we have the tangible coins collapsing in value and a fiat currency replacing them. By September 1789, New York City had now communicated a strategy whereby they were accepting only New Jersey coppers and no other coins of any other origin. This measure at least stabilized the crisis to some extent whereby the value of New Jersey coppers returned to 24 to the shilling, which was an improvement to the 60 level or higher, but still well above the intended official value of 15 to the shilling. Outside of New York City, coppers were still trading over 60 to the shilling. Even by September 1789, the price for coppers in Connecticut was still trading at least at 48 to the shilling. The Panic did not reach Boston where coppers were trading at 18 coppers per shilling, but an arbitrage was quickly developing whereby worthless coppers from New York and Philadelphia were making their way northward in trade. It was really the fiat small change notes that help to stabilize the financial crisis. Numerous businesses and churches now began to issue small change notes in substitute of actual coins.

The Panic of 1789 illustrated the crisis in CONFIDENCE. The transition to becoming the United States was not entirely smooth sailing. It was the Whiskey Rebellion that began in 1791 against federal taxation. This came to a climax on August 7th, 1794, when then President George Washington issued a proclamation and summoned almost 15,000 troops using the military against American citizens. This was the action that gave birth to Thomas Jefferson’s Democratic-Republican Party to opposed Federalism.

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In 1792, there was finally agreement that the coinage should not portray the picture of the President, but of Liberty. The coins proposed were designed and produced by Robert Birch. The penny illustrated here contains a center spot of silver. This is clearly a desire to avoid the problems of the Panic of 1789 with debased and underweight coppers. This coin was never produced. Likewise, there was also proposed the silver 5 cent (Half-Disme) and 10 cent pieces (Disme). The following year, 1793, saw the beginning of the new Federal monetary system. The first coins to appear were the half-penny and the penny. These coins were reduced in weight from the 1792 Birch series with the half-penny dropping from 132 grains to 104 by the Act of January 14th, 1793. The weight would be further reduced to 84 grains on January 26, 1796. Eventually, the penny fell from13.48 grams in 1793 to 3.11 grams in 1864 with the introduction of the Indian Head penny. The silver center in the Birch cents was eliminated for 1793. The Act of April 2, 1792, which established the U.S. Mint, authorized the production of the United States Silver Dollar .8924 fine silver with a weight of 416 grains or 26.9563 grams. A troy ounce weighs 480 grains and thus the silver dollar began with a gross weight of .866 of an ounce with a fine silver weight of only .773 of a troy ounce. The United States continued to mint silver dollars until 1804. Britain had stopped striking gold coinage in 1797 and did not resume until 1813 after the Napoleonic War. It was during this period in time that Britain was counter-stamping Spanish silver dollars and thus in 1804 it began to over-strike these coins with British designs. The United States did not resume striking silver dollars until 1837.

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CONCLUSION

We must realize that there are always two sides to every issue. Paper currency is NOT the problem. The problem has always been the fiscal mismanagement. There are plenty of examples from history that illustrate that a paper currency that is maintain with fiscal management has produced a stable monetary system without chronic inflation. But to assume that merely returning to tangible coinage will solve all the problems is simply childish. There is 6,000 years of history to draw from and you cannot find a single empire or nation no less a city state that has ever not debased its currency or borrowed without fiscal restraint and collapsed. The first step in solving our problems is to identify what is actually causing the problem. To return to a gold standard solves nothing. What about the outstanding debt. We will still go broke regardless of what we call money because we CANNOT service the outstanding debt that is there. We must tackle the real problem. We must eliminate the existing debt and by law prohibit ANY public borrowing whatsoever be it directly or indirectly through debasement be it by increasing the supply of money in an intangible system or by reducing the metal content in a tangible system. WE NEED TERM LIMITS to prevent a professional political class and we MUST eliminate the party backroom dictatorships. We do NOT have a democracy for we can vote for an individual, but he is constraint to vote as the backroom dictatorship instructs him to retain party support and funding. All elections MUST be funded by the state – no private funding whatsoever be it direct or indirect. Anyone may run and to get state funding he must win in the run-offs as they unfold.
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Obi-Wan
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Re: Martin A. Armstrong - Economics

Post by Obi-Wan »

Voor de fans... interview met M.A. Armstrong

Link F.S.

Jim welcomes back Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Econonics.com. Martin believes "capital knows something is wrong" and we’re past the tipping point of the debt crisis. He sees the crisis rotating from Europe to Japan and finally reaching the US, with devastating results. As to gold, he believes the best thing for gold would be a correction this year and a healthy period of consolidation, setting the stage for a launch higher as the debt crisis worsens.

Image
Patience. Use the force. Think.
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